Analyzing MLB’s potential plans to save the 2020 season during the coronavirus

Sunday would have marked the first month of the Major League Baseball season. The Rockies, weather permitting, would have played 27 games.

Normally, fans would be venting about early season slumps and going ga-ga over April heroes. Instead, we all wait for a season that might never come, or if it does come, will be played in a dramatically altered state.

So, what are the chances there will be baseball played this year?

Despite the ongoing presence of the coronavirus pandemic, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred remains optimistic that a season will take place.

“While I fully anticipate that baseball will resume this season, it is very difficult to predict with any accuracy the timeline for the resumption of our season,” Manfred said in a letter sent last week to managers, coaches, scouts and other non-players employed by MLB.

As for a realistic plan to get the game up and running, Manfred is not divulging details.

“The only real decision that we have made, the only real plan that we have is that baseball is not going to return until the public health situation has improved to the point that we’re comfortable,” Manfred told Fox Business earlier this month. “That we can play games in a manner that’s safe for our players, our employees, our fans, and in a way that will not impact the public health situation adversely.”

Three potential plans have emerged, all of which have been met with varying degrees of skepticism:

The “Arizona plan” would house all 30 teams in the Phoenix area, where players and staff would stay at hotels, face a strict quarantine and travel only to ballparks to play games.
The “Cactus League and Grapefruit League” plan, in which the 15 teams that hold spring training in Arizona would form one league, with the 15 teams that hold spring training in Florida forming the other league.
The “Tri-State” plan, with leagues in Florida, Arizona and Texas. According to a report from CBS Sports, 10 teams would be stationed in each state. Clubs would play games at major- and minor-league ballparks, as well as some spring training facilities. In this scenario, the Rockies would be included in the Texas League.

According to the report, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., Chase Field in Phoenix and the new Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas — all of which have roofs — would safeguard against rainouts and extremely hot weather. The stadiums could host multiple games at those ballparks each day. Theoretically, MLB could also ask teams stationed in Florida and Texas to drive three-plus hours to other MLB parks — Houston’s Minute Maid Park and Miami’s Marlins Park, for instance.

It should be noted that at this point, MLB would agree to play all of its games with no fans in attendance, relying on television and radio to bring the games to fans. MLB is continuing to exhaust all of its options in an effort to save the season and bring in money. Last year, MLB generated $10.7 billion in revenue.

The latest reports suggest that MLB could finalize a plan in May, depending on the path and scope of the coronavirus. If MLB and the MLB Players Association could work out an agreement, a three-week “spring training” would take place in June.

Optimistically, there would be an 80- to 100-game season played in July, August, September and October. An expanded playoff and the World Series would be held at warm-weather, neutral sites in November.