The Spot: Colorado’s U.S. Senate primary takes a weird turn, and painful budget battle starts next week

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On April 18, for at least one night, everything made sense.

In an election year unlike any other, the predictable had occurred. Andrew Romanoff won the Democratic state assembly, setting up a head-to-head U.S. Senate primary between him and John Hickenlooper. This is what the pundits and reporters had expected. This was predictable.

Too predictable, perhaps, for 2020.

Three days later, a Denver judge upended the June 30 primary ballot, placing Michelle Ferrigno Warren on it over the objections of the Secretary of State’s Office. The Colorado Supreme Court will now decide whether the judge was right to drastically lower the state’s signature-gathering requirement due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“It really destabilizes a system that was designed in a certain way,” said Floyd Ciruli, a longtime pollster and political consultant. “Within a certain timeline you have to get a certain number of signatures and the assumption, frankly, is that most people won’t. It’s extremely hard to do.”

On Monday, Judge Christopher Baumann ruled Diana Bray must not be placed on the ballot. Bray is also a Democratic Senate candidate and also fell well short of signature-gathering requirements — too short, in her case.

Then there is Lorena Garcia, who is also awaiting a ruling from Baumann. Having collected more valid signatures than either Warren or Bray, she’s hopeful.

The three cases are playing out within a crowded election year schedule. By law, the secretary of state must send county clerks all ballot content by May 7. The office says it will send counties a list of candidates who are either certified or may be certified. Then, if a court rules against those candidates later, it will simply not count any votes that were cast for them.

Hickenlooper and Romanoff are certainly on the June 30 ballot. They may be joined by two others, Warren and Garcia. Or, possibly, by only one of the two. Or maybe neither, if the Colorado Supreme Court sides with the Secretary of State’s Office next month.

Romanoff supported Warren’s lawsuit, but there’s reason to believe its success harms his chances against Hickenlooper — the most moderate and best-known candidate. In a crowded field, anti-establishment votes could be split several ways.

“Romanoff’s slim hopes of consolidating those not excited by a Hickenlooper candidacy and then gaining a majority of the vote to win the nomination are made even slimmer by Warren and/or Garcia getting on the ballot,” said Kyle Saunders, a professor of political science at Colorado State University.

Ciruli put it blunter: “Romanoff needs a head-to-head as much as possible.”

Of course, as Saunders noted Wednesday, all the usual caveats apply here. There are two months to go and these are unprecedented times. Wild things can happen. Some already have.

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You can send tips, comments and questions to me at jwingerter@denverpost.com or to the other Post reporters below.

Top Line

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Capitol Diary • By Jon Murray

Gearing up for a budget battle royale

Next week, the Colorado legislature’s budget writers will begin meeting as they sort through tough choices that are suddenly needed to offset the huge revenue hits brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. Statehouse reporters Alex Burness and Saja Hindi, who are off this week, will be back to cover the issue, but in the meantime, here’s a quick look at the pain that awaits lawmakers.

State budget analysts recommended about $1 billion in potential cuts to the Joint Budget Committee this week. They would touch nearly every aspect of state government, from children’s health insurance to education to public services across the state.

The bad news is that the amount that needs to be cut could very well reach much higher. Lawmakers are preparing for a shortfall of as much as $3 billion in the 2020-21 fiscal year, an amount that will become clearer when the latest state budget forecast comes out in mid-May. It’s a stark reversal from the picture painted by the last forecast in March, when slight revenue growth was expected in the next year.

For now, lawmakers are steeling themselves to fight for their priorities, and so are advocates and interest groups.

Backers of the state’s efforts to attract film and TV productions, for one, worry about a recommendation adopted last week by the JBC to temporarily eliminate the $500,000 general fund appropriation for the Colorado Office of Film, Television and Media. Education advocates are likely to fight against much greater potential damage to budgets for K-12 education and the state’s colleges and universities.

In the face of such deep cuts to Gov. Jared Polis’ original $34.5 billion budget proposal, the Colorado Fiscal Institute, a liberal think tank, is urging lawmakers to reject the notion that trims to spending are the only remedy. They point to a relief valve in the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights that could reduce the scope of cutbacks.

But TABOR’s allowance of an emergency tax without voter approval — with the consent of a two-thirds majority in the legislature — is politically tricky. Democrats have majorities in both chambers, but Republican opposition could block the idea.

“If this isn’t an emergency, it is hard to imagine what is,” Carol Hedges, the fiscal institute’s executive director, said in a news release this week. “TABOR recognizes that emergency situations call for enhanced community-wide responses. Now, more than ever, our elected officials need to consider all available options to help Colorado communities, including additional revenue to offset devastating cuts.”

More Colorado political news

  • Gov. Jared Polis on Wednesday set out COVID-19 testing goals for May that are aimed at preventing a second wave of infections later this year.
  • Colorado Democrats are “cautiously optimistic” about the state’s coronavirus strategy as Polis’ relaxed “safer-at-home” order took effect statewide this week.
  • Impatience and frustration at stay-at-home-orders, which are still in effect in some cities, has become a rallying cry among some leading Republicans in the Democratic-led state.

#COSen 2020 • By Justin Wingerter

The Hick hearing saga

Mark Grueskin, the high-priced, taxpayer-paid attorney for Hickenlooper, wrote to Colorado’s Independent Ethics Commission on Monday with an idea: There should be no ethics hearing in his client’s case. Instead, the two sides should make their respective arguments in writing, and the commission can decide after reading whether Hickenlooper violated ethics laws.

“The Commission often resolves complaints based on a written record, and given the extraordinary circumstances in our world today, it should do so here,” Grueskin wrote.

Video conferences are often hacked, he said, and could be by “political actors” during a Hickenlooper hearing. His client has a right to in-person counsel, not one on the other side of a screen. Documents cannot easily be shared at a virtual hearing.

Plus, there will inevitably be technical difficulties, Grueskin wrote. As the ethics commission debated Grueskin’s points during a virtual hearing the next day, there were technical difficulties.

Still, the idea found zero support from the commission. Suzanne Staiert with the Public Trust Institute, which filed the Hickenlooper ethics complaint, told commissioners at the Tuesday meeting that she is opposed to Grueskin’s idea. Commissioners voiced similar opposition.

“Obviously, I think we can have this hearing remotely and while in-person would be the best possible way to do it, I think remotely would be the second best,” said Chairwoman Elizabeth Espinosa Krupa.

“I feel that there’s a lot of context that gets lost when reading words on a page, versus hearing someone speak,” said Commissioner Selina Baschiera. It would be “a disservice,” she said, to conduct such a high-profile hearing entirely on paper.

Hickenlooper’s testimony – and, specifically, Staiert’s cross-examination – will be closely watched. Written arguments would have robbed Staiert of that opportunity to grill the former governor and saved Hickenlooper from potentially politically damaging moments. With Grueskin’s idea rejected, Republican ad-makers will be monitoring.

“It’s troubling that the Independent Ethics Commission would apparently disregard the fair plan laid out by the governor’s counsel, especially after experiencing the limitations of the web format during Tuesday’s meeting,” said Melissa Miller, a Hickenlooper campaign spokeswoman.

“The dark-money groups behind this complaint clearly intend to continue using the process as a political cudgel, and the commission shouldn’t assist them.”

Commissioners have not set a date or format for Hickenlooper’s hearing on the charges first filed in 2018. It was set to take place in March after the commission couldn’t find a location to hold it in February. Now it might occur sometime in May — or it may not. It could be in-person, or virtual, or a hybrid of the two.

“Due to (Hickenlooper)’s objection to a remote hearing or in-person hearing in May, PTI requests the commission delay the proceeding until such time an in-person hearing can be held,” Staiert wrote to commissioners on Thursday.

Jill Biden (virtually) campaigns in Colorado

Jill Biden and Sen. Michael Bennet held a virtual campaign event for presidential candidate Joe Biden with about 125 Coloradans on Wednesday afternoon. The former second lady took a few questions from the crowd, including an interesting suggestion from former state legislator Ruth Wright of Boulder.

Wright said she hopes Joe Biden announces his Cabinet before the election, and that it includes “some top Republicans, like Mitt Romney,” to prove he will be a president for all people.

“Well, you know, it would be a bit presumptuous to start announcing Cabinet picks, I think,” Jill Biden said. “You know, Joe said he would consider announcing some of the Cabinet members before the election. Which, like you’re saying, is important to you. But he’s not made that commitment yet. What he is committed to is having a woman on the ticket as vice president and a Cabinet that looks like America.

“But I will take your suggestion to Joe, so thank you.”

Ads: On Wednesday, Senate Majority PAC launched an ad criticizing Sen. Cory Gardner for attending a Palm Beach champagne party in late February. The Democratic group plans to spend at least $10,000 sharing the digital ad. The Post’s coverage of the Florida soiree is here.

On Monday, the Service Employees International Union, which represents health care workers and service workers, launched this anti-Trump ad in Colorado and seven other states. SEIU is spending more than $100,000 to broadcast it and hopes to reach 2.6 million voters of color.

Endorsements: Our Revolution Metro Denver endorsed Romanoff on Wednesday. Our Revolution is a liberal group which spun off of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential run.

More federal politics news

  • Rep. Ken Buck wrote in an op-ed this week that Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx should be removed from the coronavirus task force. He calls them “the duo of doom.”
  • 5280 Magazine recaps how the Senate race looked pre-Hickenlooper versus post-Hickenlooper, and compares it to a 2018 House race in Colorado.
  • Hickenlooper had an awkward moment Friday when he said of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, “I can’t think of her name. She’s breathtaking.”

Mile High Politics • By Conrad Swanson

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